#3 Kenya - A High Upside, Mid-Duration Investment Play

Summary - 30 seconds

After meeting with dozens of people—from the poorest to the wealthiest—here's the bottom line: Kenya is on the cusp of a generational economic transformation.

With a population of 55 million—set to grow to 85 million by 2050—and a literacy rate exceeding that of the United States (82% vs. 79%), Kenya boasts a young, educated workforce ready to power the next phase of growth.

So what's the timeline and what will it take?

Kenya is most likely not a 3–5 year, 10x-return market. It is a 7–12 year play, where capital deployed today can capture deeply undervalued assets and ride long-term structural tailwinds. Outside of the tech sector, valuations are at levels rarely seen in developed markets, offering exceptional entry points for early capital. With that being said, the timing is difficult to estimate and could be expedited if the political climate improves. Once this market takes off, the growth will be exponential, and investors will wish they had exposure.

Detailed Overview - 3 minutes

Political Reform = Major Upside: Corruption and policy instability currently limit short-term growth and investor confidence. However, Kenya has managed to build a resilient and growing economy despite these challenges—millions of locals and foreign investors continue to do business and invest very successfully. The key insight: Kenya is already laying the groundwork for explosive growth. When leadership shifts to prioritize national progress over personal gain, the scale of the opportunity will magnify and early investors will be perfectly positioned to benefit from a meteoric rise.

Strategic Unity - Unlocking Collective Impact: The Christian community holds unparalleled global assets and influence—especially in regions like Kenya. To drive meaningful economic development, we must shift from isolated efforts to a unified, coordinated strategy. Aligning around shared goals and moving all the pillars (government, education, private capital, etc.) in unison will maximize impact.

Partnership with Locals is the Winning Strategy - I asked 50 entrepreneurs, "What is the one thing that you want foreign investors to know about Africa?" The resounding answer is, "I want them to know that the solutions to the problems in Africa, lie with Africans." For far too long, the west has gone into Africa trying to implement solutions to problems we don't fully understand in cultures we don't fully understand. And while this is almost always done with good intentions, we often do more harm than good. Kenya is now at a place where their people are educated, smart, and capable leaders and innovators. What they really need and want are long-term partners who will help them grow their businesses through expertise and capital infusions . Not only is partnership the ask from Africans, but it is also the best strategy for investors. True partnership with local people you know, trust, and respect is the best strategy for investors to minimize risk and maximize returns.

Medium-Large Sized Businesses: While micro-entrepreneurship is vital and deserves support, the most strategic investment opportunity lies in medium-sized businesses ($10M–$50M in revenue). These companies—particularly in healthcare, financial services, insurance, agriculture, manufacturing, and exports—are the backbone of sustainable economic development. They don’t just create jobs; they solve core societal needs and produce goods and services at a scale and quality that can be exported. Exporting brings in hard cash, strengthens the local currency, and lifts the national tide. Investors have a chance to fill a critical gap in Kenya’s business landscape by backing these mid-sized firms—unlocking long-term returns while fueling transformative growth.

In Summary, Kenya is already moving toward a modern, service-driven economy. With the right capital and strategic patience, the return profile could be exponential. For investors with mid-duration capacity in their portfolios, Kenya represents one of the most compelling frontier opportunities globally.

Thanks for taking the time to read "African Market Insights." As we spend the year traveling the continent to understand what the opportunity set really is, we invite you to subscribe and join the journey on LinkedIn - you can follow Zac Sicher and African Market Insights. We are investment professionals with a passion for loving people and impacting their lives and would love to get to know you!