Wrapping Up Our Journey: 10 Takeaways from 500 Conversations
7 Countries. 10 Months. 500 Conversations.
As I write this note to you, I’m reflecting on the incredible journey we've had exploring what God is doing across the African continent. Over the past year, I've traveled to Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe, and Zambia and had the privilege of simply listening. Offering nothing but a cup of coffee or meal in return, God has given me the opportunity not to bring solutions, strategy, or capital first, but to simply listen - to see the continent through the eyes of the people on the ground (at least as much as I can).
Our goals were simple: 1) Follow the Lord 2) Listen to Locals and 3) Translate the Opportunity Set back to Investors in the West
Well, we've followed the Lord to the best of our ability (although certainly not perfectly), we've spent time listening to locals and have sent 9 emails thus far. It's time for the 10th, where we share 10 months of learning in 10 points. Here we go:
1. The Solutions to Africa's Problems Primarily Lie with Africans
One of the strongest takeaways is that the solutions to Africa’s challenges are primarily found within Africa itself. The talent, creativity, and resilience I’ve witnessed are a powerful reminder that local leaders are the best architects of their own futures. It's not about Americans trying to solve Africa's problems, it's about rallying the world behind Africa's greatest problem solvers - helping them to be all God made them to be.
2. Extraordinary Talent, Uneven Opportunity
There’s no shortage of talent in Africa—only a misallocation of opportunity. I’ve seen entrepreneurs that can go toe-to-toe with Silicon Valley’s best (and do in YC + Tech Stars), and Fund Managers that are as good as any PM I’ve traded with on Wall Street (see here for a list of some I’ve come across). Many of Africa’s best and brightest have grown up in Africa, gone to school at Ivy Leagues in the US, and went back home to build. It’s not about a lack of talent; it’s about ensuring that talent can reach its potential.
3. The Power of a Unified Christian Community
Another significant lesson is that the Christian community is the largest and perhaps most well-resourced group on the continent but is often fragmented. I see a lot of people trying to build the first three stories of their own buildings, but if we come together—pooling resources and efforts—we could build 10 and 100 story buildings, achieving far more together than we could in isolation. Just a reminder, in the words of Herb Brooks that, “The name on the front of the jersey is a whole lot more important than the name on the back.”
4. Perceived Risk vs Actual Risk
There is a significant dislocation between how risky Africa is perceived to be and how risky it actually is. Many in the Western world paint the entire continent with a broad brush, labeling Africa as universally “risky.” But for those willing to look more closely, you can fine tremendously undervalued opportunities in regions with stability. It reminded me of the regional banking crisis of 2023 - after SVB went under, Charles Schwab saw its stock drop almost 40%, even though it was one of the highest rated banks in the country with a totally different operating model than SVB. However, because it was considered a “regional bank” people sold it. But those who were willing to take the time to look under the hood, saw a significantly undervalued company and made ~100% on their investment in just 3 years.
5. Proving That Capital Is Treated Well in Africa
As much as we want to tap into the kindness and generosity of people to fuel economic development in developing countries, we must understand that the vast majority of money in the world goes where it’s treated best. There are almost infinite amounts of money in the world that flow to places, projects, and companies that can make them more money. So, in a world of shrinking aid budgets, Africa needs to prove why it should be attracting capital when compared to any other investment opportunity in the world.
6. The Right Capital for the Right Purpose
To attract that capital, we need the right type of capital funding the right types of projects. It’s not just about more capital, and it’s not about “patient capital,” it’s about connecting the right type of capital with the right opportunities, structured in a way that gives everyone a reasonable shot at achieving their goals. We can’t use private equity to fund infrastructure projects or venture capital for working capital needs. Just like in the Western world we have a range of capital providers—from insurance to asset managers to private wealth—Africa too has a variety of capital sources: private equity, venture capital, private credit, pension funds, development finance institutions, governments, donors, and more. The key is deploying each type of capital strategically so that it meets the needs on the ground, the needs of the capital providers, and supports sustainable growth.
7. Improving Risk Mitigation
A core reason Africa lacks the capital it needs to sustain its growth is that investors perceive the continent as being too risky. In the Western world, capital markets are essentially risk-mitigation tools, allowing investors to hedge and manage risk. Africa needs better hedging instruments and ways to effectively price those hedges so that global capital can see Africa as a place where risks are understood and managed, not just endured.
8. Job Creation (Good Jobs)
Africa needs to produce about 30 million “good jobs” over the next 25 years to move towards the developing world. For context, Africa currently produces 3 million formal sector jobs per year. So, what do we define as a “good job?” A good job is a job that provides sustainably for one’s family and contributes meaningfully to the overall economy. I’d encourage a heavy focus on “growth jobs” - jobs that grow the wealth pie of a community because they either export goods or services outside of that community or replace imports into the community. I recognize that sustaining jobs - jobs that serve and sustain the local community are necessary, but we must recognize that unless you are serving a market outside your community, you are not bringing new dollars into it.
9. Value Creation is Key
Africa is endowed with 30% of the world’s critical minerals - minerals crucial in the AI boom - and has lots of other natural resources too, including 60% of the world’s remaining arable land. I’ve seen lots of players who want to exploit the African people with poor deals, bad prices, and trying to get Africans to export the raw materials to add value elsewhere. Africa needs to take ownership of what it has, demand fair prices, build local processing plants, add as much value locally as possible. What we’ve seen in the past, in places like Nigeria is that they exported raw crude oil at ~$2/gallon and imported the gasoline at ~$4/gallon. Well, that is nothing more than a math equation for cyclical poverty because 2-4 always equals -2. We cannot export raw materials and import finished products and expect to grow out of poverty. We must add value locally.
10. Leadership Matters - Winners and Losers
Africa is poised for significant economic development over the next few decades, but not all countries will benefit equally. Leadership and the stability of the business environment will determine which nations emerge as winners. Not every country is equally investable, but those that provide a stable, predictable operating environment will attract and retain more investment, and rightly so. John Maxwell’s "Law of the Lid" - the output of the team will be capped by the leadership ability of the leader - will play out in real time.
In conclusion, after all these conversations and time spent on the ground, I am convinced that Africa holds immense investment potential. Over the next 25 years, we’ll see certain countries transform and possibly move from the developing world into the developed world. This means there are huge opportunities across all sectors as countries grow out of poverty —from building roads to expanding energy infrastructure, and from technology to real estate. But of course, not every country will progress at the same pace. Leadership and the business environment will determine which nations thrive. Yes, it’s a complex environment, but there are brilliant fund managers who know how to operate in it. I’ve made a post about many I’ve come across here:
Thank you for reading these posts as I traveled the continent this year - my work in Africa is just beginning, but more on that later. For now, I’m grateful to the people who made this possible, and the people in Africa pioneering their way to a new future - under God’s power, and for His glory.